Canadian macro-economists are mostly in agreement that the overnight rate should go nowhere in the next 9-12+ months. And the Bank of Canada gave no indication today that such projections are off the mark.
The Bank left Canada’s core lending rate unchanged at 1% for the 29th straight month, with no change in sight.
Part of the Bank’s reasoning is reflected in these comments from its statement:
For an excellent deciphering of the Bank’s press release, click here.
Today’s announcement shed little new light on the timing of the next prime rate change. Of course the BoC is still suggesting that the next rate move is up, but others, like David Madani of Capital Economics, aren’t so sure.
On Sunday, Madani said the "inevitable" rate hikes that so many predict could actually be pre-empted by policy loosening. He noted:
For now, as long as the 5-year bond yield stays under or within the psychological 1.50% to 1.60% range, there’s little danger of any notable rise in rates. After this morning's rate announcement, bond yields remained flat at 1.32%.